What is going on in Myanmar?

February 2021 started with a familiar yet nonetheless shocking sight in Myanmar’s streets. That was the sight of Myanmar’s army, known as the Tatmadaw, clawing back executive power from the democratically elected NLD party by way of a coup d’etat. This assertion of ‘emergency’ powers by the Tatmadaw marked the end of the country’s 10-year experiment with democracy. The move has sparked mass public protest across Myanmar’s union and has refocused the world’s gaze on this troubled nation. So why is this happening in Myanmar?

It’s impossible to talk about the current situation in Myanmar without discussing its history of military rule and suppression. As a colonial territory on the easternmost part of the British Raj, Burma, as it was then known, was instrumental in pushing back against Japanese aggression in the Pacific campaign and emerged from the war as an independent country in 1948. The first free election was won in a landslide by the prominent nationalist Aung San’s (father of Aung San Suu Kyi) Anti –Fascist People’s Freedom League. However, the subsequent assassination of Aung San by political opposition and separatist revolts in the country’s Muslim majority states threw the country’s fractured union into chaos. A series of leadership changes ensued until 1962 when the Tatmadaw, led by Ne Win, took power by coup d’etat. Despite having a constant presence in power since the country’s inception, the 1962 coup effectively cemented the Tatmadaw’s foothold in power. All parliamentary institutions were resolved and Myanmar became a one-party pariah state.

The military junta that emerged was emboldened by a constitution that was built to keep it in power. To this day the Tatmadaw reserves the right to elect a quarter of the representatives in the Burmese parliament. Furthermore, the constitution requires the commander-in-chief of the army to nominate the heads of defence, the interior and border control amongst other appointment privileges. These are but a few examples of the constitutional rights afforded to the Tatmadaw and explain how they have managed to engineer state policy to their benefit.

Although the scale of the recent protests and widespread suppression seen in the streets of Yangon is shocking, it is by no means a new phenomenon. Years of economic turmoil, which saw the country languish as the poorest in South East Asia, forced widespread protests across the capital and other major hubs. These demonstrations, known as the 8888 uprising, galvanised students, monks, housewives and other facets of society in protest against their subjugation at the hands of the Tatmadaw. However, this widespread show of solidarity was met swiftly by the iron fist of the Tatmadaw. Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) spelt out the nature of the Tatmadaw’s response to the international community when stating that ‘the People of Burma are being shot down for no reason at all’. The 8888 uprising was reported to have claimed 10,000 people and culminated with yet another coup, which precipitated tighter concentration of military control through the implementation of a draconian law and order council. This incident would live in infamy in the minds of Burmese as it further isolated the already suffering nation from the world and demonstrated the ingrained and seemingly insurmountable power of the Tatmadaw.

Considering its history of military despotism, it came as no surprise that the political reforms and the democratisation of 2011 were met with jubilant fanfare from the Burmese people and the western international community alike. The reforms, which appeared as a stark change of tact from the military, laid the constitutional foundations for a road towards democracy. This included relaxed press censorship, new labour laws which protected strikes and the pardoning of over 200 political prisoners amongst other measures. This democratic transition also allowed relationships with the west to thaw; Myanmar’s membership to ASEAN was approved by the then Secretary of State Hilary Clinton in 2014. Perhaps the most public development of this period was the return of the emblematic opposition leader, ASSK, from house arrest in exile. ASSK is synonymous with the democracy movement in Myanmar and famously won the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize for her efforts in promoting democracy through her NLD party. Although not the official head of state during the ten years of democracy, she held de facto leadership as a State Councillor and was held in high regard across the globe.

However, despite its supposed transformation, violence and factional division continued to play part in Burmese history. The Rohingya pogrom of 2015 and subsequent refugee crisis acted as a damning precursor to the eventual return of military rule. This ongoing crisis has seen Rohingya Muslim’s from Rakhine state in the far west of the country being violently persecuted by military units; rape and torture are reported to have been used as weapons of war. However, the deafening silence emanating from ASSK’s refusal to condemn the Tatmadaw revealed the ills that continue to face the nation.

Behind the apparent democratisation of Burmese life, the military maintained its constitutional and executive leverage over ASSK’s NLD. By making use of their parliamentary selection privileges and executive influence, the Tatmadaw were able to veto many of the NLD’s transformative policies; journalists continued to be harassed and ethnic tensions bubbled. There is no doubt that the imbedded influence and power that the Tatmadaw holds is a decisive reason for the country’s perennial struggles. This is made even clearer by fact that one of the reported reasons for the coup in February was because of the NLD’s desire to reign in some of the military’s privileges.

The month of protests that has followed the coup may be familiar to many Burmese, but unlike in previous instances, its citizens now harbour a lived experience under a tentative yet meaningful democracy. This, along with the recent arrest of ASSK and other NLD leaders on a range of spurious charges, has led to cross-sectional and widespread protests that have already claimed over 100 lives. Burmese are understandably doubtful that the military will honour their promise to hold elections after their year of emergency law has passed, it is a blatant case of history repeating itself and they will not let it transpire without resistance.

Most international players have condemned the coup and showed support for ASSK, but multilateral condemnation has faltered due to China’s UN Security Council veto. Being Myanmar’s neighbour to the north, China has a vested interest in supporting the militant state socialism of the Tatmadaw. This geopolitical dimension further complicates this already contentious issue and would require immediate and decisive action led by the Biden administration. Meanwhile, the protest movement continues to swell into its second month and shows no sign of slowing down. Protesters and observers alike are desperate to avoid the precedents of history and ensure that this recent incident can bring lasting change for the long-suffering people of Myanmar.